How the Second World War could have been prevented. Could the tragedy have been prevented? What is a duplicate

The unhindered entry of Nazi troops into the territory of Czechoslovakia was preceded by an agreement wrested by violence and threats from the then Czechoslovak President Emil Hakha.

“I have decided to declare that I am handing over the fate of the Czech people and the state into the hands of the leader of the German people,”- Hacha said on the air of Czech Radio on his return from Berlin.

The Czech army was ordered to remain in the barracks and surrender their weapons. On the same day, March 15, Adolf Hitler arrived in Prague. The Czech government under the leadership of Rudolf Beran decided to resign, but President Hach refused to remove the cabinet from office.

A day later, Hitler in Prague Castle announces the creation of the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia.

Was there an opportunity to turn the arrows of history in a different direction, to what extent was the decision of Nazi Germany "unexpected" for the Czechoslovak authorities?

Back in February 1936, a letter was sent to the headquarters of the Czechoslovak intelligence services with a proposal for cooperation, signed - "Karl". Its author, as it turns out later, is Paul Thummel (agent A 54), a high-ranking official of the Abwehr who is officially acting against Czechoslovakia. Tummel, a member of the Nazi Party since 1927, is considered a personal friend of Heinrich Himmler.

“At the time when the proposal comes from Tyummel, the position of Czechoslovakia in the international arena was quite satisfactory. Our state has concluded a number of treaties with allies, mainly with France, as well as with the countries of the "Little Entente" - that is, with Romania and Yugoslavia, and since May 1935 with the Soviet Union ",- explains historian Jiri Plahi in an interview with Czech Radio.

However, relations with the closest neighbors were problematic, after the Nazis came to power, relations with Germany began to deteriorate sharply, relations with Hungary were also unsatisfactory, and with a certain frequency - even with Poland. All controversial issues related to the situation of national minorities, as well as territorial claims.

Despite the rather detailed information about the nature of the impending occupation, voiced by Tyummel on March 11, 1939, Czechoslovak politicians refuse to believe such a negative scenario.

“We can say that information about the plans to occupy the Czech lands by Nazi troops came to the headquarters of the Czech military intelligence from the beginning of March. Its main source was agent A 54, the information he provided was decisive for Colonel Frantisek Moravec (one of the leaders of the Czechoslovak intelligence services). Information in a similar vein came from the French special services. The authors of a number of warning messages were also Czech agents monitoring the demarcation line, as well as those who acted directly in Germany, ”- says the historian Jiri Plahi.

How can one assess, to a certain extent, the “inaction” of the then Czechoslovak political representatives from today's perspective?

“We must clearly understand that the Czechoslovak border in March 1939 passed north of the town of Melnik. If we want to open a discussion on the topic: "Did Czechoslovakia need to fight back?" In March 1939, the armed confrontation of the Czechoslovak army would have slowed down the occupation for only a few hours. Such an act could not even be called a courageous gesture, it would be just a massacre. The war was supposed to start in September 1938 ",- concludes the historian Jiri Plahi.

In December 1991, the heads of the republics of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia signed an agreement in Belovezhskaya Pushcha on the establishment of the SSG. This document actually meant the collapse of the Soviet Union. The political map of the world began to look different.

First, you need to decide on what caused the global catastrophe in order to try to objectively assess the situation. There are many such reasons. This is the degradation of the ruling elites of the "burial era", which turned a powerful state into a not very powerful one, and problems in the economy that have long demanded effective reforms. This also includes harsh censorship, deep internal crises, including increased nationalism in the republics.

It is naive to believe that the stars were formed this way and the state disintegrated due to coincidentally coinciding events. The main political opponent of the Soviet Union was not dozing either, imposing an arms race in which the USSR, given all the existing problems, had no opportunity to succeed. We must pay tribute to the intelligence and insight of Western geopoliticians who managed to shake and destroy the seemingly unshakable "Soviet machine".

The USSR broke up into 15 states. In 1991, the following appeared on the world map: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan.

The Cold War, which resulted in the collapse of the USSR, was by no means limited to indirect clashes on all sorts of fronts in countries such as Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan. The Cold War took place in the minds and hearts of the citizens of the USSR and the United States. Western propaganda was more sophisticated. The United States and its allies turned all their massive riots and discontent into a show. Hippies could preach love instead of war and the authorities calmly allowed them to state their point of view, nevertheless continuing to bend their policies. In the Soviet Union, dissent was brutally suppressed. And when they were allowed to think “otherwise”, it was too late. The wave of discontent fueled from the outside (and the fifth column took an active part) could not be stopped.

There were a lot of reasons for the collapse, but if you simplify everything, you can come to the conclusion that the USSR collapsed because of jeans, gum and Coca-Cola. There were too many "forbidden fruits", which in fact turned out to be a dummy.

Options for resolving the situation.

Probably, the collapse of the USSR could have been prevented. It is difficult to say which solution would be ideal for the state, for the country, for the people, without knowing all the unknown factors. As an example, consider the People's Republic of China, which, thanks to the flexible actions of the authorities, managed to avoid the crisis of the socialist system.

However, the national component should not be underestimated. Although both the Soviet Union and the PRC are multinational states, the peoples of China and the Soviet Union are by no means identical. The difference between culture and history makes itself felt.

An idea was needed for the people. It was necessary to come up with an alternative to the "American Dream", which teased Soviet citizens from across the ocean. In the 1930s, when the inhabitants of the USSR believed in the ideals of communism, the country turned from an agrarian into an industrial one in record time. In the 40s. not without faith in a just cause, the USSR defeated the enemy, which at that time was stronger in terms of military power. In the 50s. people were ready for the common good to raise virgin soil on sheer enthusiasm. In the 60s. The Soviet Union was the first to send a man into space. Soviet people conquered mountain peaks, made scientific discoveries, broke world records. All this happened largely because of the belief in a bright future and for the good of our people.

For more than 20 years, in terms of most economic and social indicators, the newly formed countries have significantly rolled back.

Further, the situation gradually began to deteriorate. The people began to understand the utopian nature of the ideals of the past. The country's government blindly continued to bend its line, not thinking about possible development alternatives. The aging leaders of the USSR reacted primitively to the provocations of the West, getting involved in unnecessary military conflicts. The ugly growing bureaucracy thought mainly about its own good rather than about the needs of the people, for whom all these "people's" bodies were originally created.

There was no need to "tighten the screws" where the situation did not require it. Then the "forbidden fruits" would not have become so desirable, and the intriguers of the West would have lost their main weapon. Instead of thoughtlessly following the obviously utopian ideals, it was necessary to pay attention in time to the needs of the people even at that time. And under no circumstances should one alternate between "thaws" and other liberalities with strict prohibitions. Domestic and foreign policy had to be carried out reasonably tough for the benefit of national interests, but without excesses.

They say that every doctor has his own cemetery. Consultants also have it, only few people admit it. You know, it is very scary to see danger in a person's card and not be able to convince him of its reality. But let me tell you about everything in order.

A long time ago, in 2000, I passed my license and bought my first car. It was a red Volkswagen Golf at the age of 13. As my stepfather said: "It would be better if you bought yourself a Zaporozhets to begin with." I said that because fear made me not very good at driving. Because of this, in the early days of independent driving, I managed to mix up the gas and brake pedals and knocked out 3 cars in the parking lot. I had to rent a garage.

Since they were looking for a garage quickly and not far from the house, they took the first one that came across. To get into it, you had to try - it was located at an angle to the main street. I got into the garage with difficulty, the scratched left door embarrassed me, but what could I do? I learned from my mistakes. Once a neighbor, seeing my efforts as a millimeter woman, offered his help - he drove my car into the garage. So I met my neighbor Leonid Mikhailovich and learned that on this part of the street everyone communicates as in a good communal apartment and his garage is the center of communication.

In my golf, I only changed filters and oil (I was really lucky with the car), and watched how the neighbors carefully pored over their "horses", looked for the cause of the breakdown, retrieved parts, repaired, washed, rubbed! In any weather! Of course, they drove more than mine, not every car can withstand our roads.

If you have ever participated in a team at least once in your life, where everything is for one and one for all, then you will understand me. I have never met such a sincere friendship, mutual assistance, mutual assistance anywhere else. We celebrated birthdays and the first Friday of the week, in the summer we grilled kebabs for no reason, but in order to just get together and talk to everyone. I repeat: the center of our Universe was Leonid Mikhailovich, just Lenya or simply Mikhalych.

I have one photograph left. Mikhalych sits to my left. That was such a simple relationship.

Leonid Mikhailovich turned out to be a first-class auto repairman. It seems to me that he could disassemble and assemble any engine with his eyes closed. He had several garages, and he earned money by repairing other people's cars and resale of restored cars. How it was all legally formalized, did he pay taxes ... guess for yourself ... and he also worked as a locksmith at the factory.

Then I got married and left for Germany.

In August 2017, I visited my parents in Gomel. The phone rings (my mom is using my phone number now). Mikhalych!

- Ohhh, how are you? So are you in Gomel? Let me come to you now, at least see you?

Mikhalych arrived happy, smiling and first of all he handed me his passport: “Vo, threw the guests and rushed to you. Today I am 60 years old! "

To be honest, I was puzzled by his act. On my birthday, call my mother to find out when I’ll arrive, then leave the guests ... And now I think that it was his chance, an inspiration, his sense of self-preservation, a manifestation of his star-savior "lunar virtue", if he would react to our meeting in a different way.

And I was just getting ready to visit a friend, I took a Chinese calendar with me. When Lenya said about 60 years old and showed me his passport, I was alarmed. Because at that time I already had several examples when people born in 1957 did not survive their duplicate in 2017.

What is a duplicate?

This is a doubling of energies.

The sequence of combinations of heavenly trunks and earthly branches has a 60-tiric cycle, that is, it repeats every 60 years, 60 months, 60 days and 60 hours. It is this cyclical nature that helps in predicting or planning events.

That is, the mention of 60 years affected me like a red rag on a bull - danger!

I opened the calendar and found Mikhalych's date of birth.

Cyclicity is paradoxical in that it can repeat the month of birth of a person, especially since in 60 years the months changed 12 times and stood in the same position as at birth. See how it looks.

That is, the current moment has duplicated the year and month of bazi Leonid Mikhailovich. The Chinese say about the duplicate: "One must go." Or a person or time. Since the year and month are responsible for the health and society of a person, then at such moments a situation of confrontation arises - in your environment there is someone who considers himself entitled to claim your place. Especially when the robbers of wealth are doubling.

One more point.

For 60 years, a person passes half of the pillars of fortune. This means that he finds himself in a beat that is directly opposite to his monthly pillar. This is a direct collision, the so-called anti-duplication. ALL people pass this test !!!

In earthly life, this time corresponds to retirement - a person's life changes by 180 degrees. Then he went to work and was needed by everyone, and now he sits at home and watches TV alone. Of course, a lot depends on whether the collision is beneficial, whether it is confirmed over the years, and so on. Here I showed you the very principle of changing energies during the transition to the 7th dozen.

Mikhalych's joy was precisely due to his retirement.

- Everything! Enough! I don't owe anyone anything else. And I'm tired of poking around in cars. I will raise the prices. Whoever doesn't like it - the door is open, I'm not holding anyone. I will work for my own pleasure, when and how much I want. It will be enough for me. I want to travel, see the world.

In this spirit, Mikhalych painted my future life for me.

And I have a red rag looming before my eyes.

After all, there is a third factor- fiery punishment. You know that fiery punishment means betrayal and stabs in the back, in other words, relationship problems. By the personality types and the pillars that shape the punishment, we can guess where to expect trouble.

In Mikhalych's card, fiery punishment was formed due to the coming pillar of luck. That is, the prerequisites for punishment were in the card in the form of harm to the Snake and the Monkey. And tact with the Tiger closed the circuit and a reaction began.

- Lyonya, - I asked carefully. - Are you all right? With clients? With a "roof"?

- Oh, again you are with your Chinese nonsense! Now no one decides for me. Im free person.

... Leonid Mikhailovich was killed a week later - on August 31, 2017 at the entrance of his own house. Rather, family and friends believe he was killed. The police believe that a happy healthy man, who had just retired and planned his life for many years ahead, died from the fact that he himself fell and hit the back of his head on a step and broke his skull.

The date of the tragedy, personally, leaves no doubt in my mind that it was precisely a murder. Fiery punishment in all its glory in the date activates the punishment in the card. I would look for the organizers of the murder among the clients.

But the police officers from the Chinese academies did not finish, so they wrote off the case as an accident. Mikhalych's daughter is going to fight for the truth ... let's see what happens.

Sorry for the sad story, but that's life.

Learn BaZi and take care of yourself!

Irina Makovetskaya,

Feng Shui International Forum Consultant

In short, historians and researchers of that conflict have been trying to answer the question of whether the First World War could have been prevented for several decades. However, it has not yet been possible to find an unambiguous answer.

After the murder

Despite the fact that at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries the situation in Europe due to the accumulated contradictions between the major world powers heated up almost to the limit, the countries several times managed to avoid the start of open military confrontation.
A number of experts believe that even after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, the conflict was not inevitable. In support of their version, they cite the facts that the reaction did not follow immediately, but only after a few weeks. What happened during this time?

French visit

Taking advantage of the summer break in the work of parliament, French President R. Poincaré paid a visit to Russia. He was accompanied by the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister R. Viviani. Arriving aboard the French battleship, the distinguished guests spent several days in Peterhof, after which they set off for Scandinavia.

Despite the fact that the German Kaiser at that time spent his summer holidays far from Berlin, and in the activities of other states there was a period of calm, this visit did not go unnoticed. Based on the situation on the world stage, the governments of the Central Powers (then the Triple Alliance) decided that France and Russia were secretly planning something. And of course, what is being undertaken will certainly be directed against them. Therefore, Germany decided to prevent any of their steps, and to act first.

Wine of Russia?

Others in search of an answer to the question of whether the First World War could have been prevented, in short, are trying to shift all the blame onto Russia. First, it is argued that war could have been avoided if Russian diplomats had not insisted on the unacceptability of the Austro-Hungarian demands made against Serbia. That is, if the Russian Empire refused to defend the Serbian side.
However, according to the documents, Nicholas II offered the Austrian Kaiser to settle the matter peacefully - in the Hague court. But the latter completely ignored the appeal of the Russian autocrat.

Secondly, there is a version that if Russia fulfilled the conditions of the German ultimatum and stopped the mobilization of its troops, then again there would be no war. The proof is that Germany announced its mobilization later than the Russian side. However, it should be noted here that the concept of "mobilization" was significantly different in the Russian and German empires. If the Russian army, when announcing mobilization, was just beginning to gather and prepare, then the German one was ready in advance. And mobilization in imperial Germany meant the beginning of hostilities.

As for the allegations that the German government to the last assured Russia of its peaceful intentions and unwillingness to start a war, then perhaps it was just playing for time? To sow doubts in the enemy and prevent them from properly preparing.
Opponents of the version about Russia's responsibility for the start of the war, in turn, cite the fact that although the Russians were preparing for an armed conflict, they planned to complete the preparation no earlier than 1917. While the German troops were fully prepared for a war on two fronts (simultaneously against Russia and France). The notorious Schlieffen plan served as evidence of the latter statement. This document, developed by the chief of the German General Staff A. Schlieffen, was drawn up back in 1905-08!

An inevitable necessity

And yet, despite different views and versions, most of the historical and military researchers continue to argue that the first world conflict happened simply because at that time it simply could not be otherwise. War was the only way to resolve the contradictions that had accumulated over several decades between the major powers of Europe and the world. Therefore, even if R. Poincaré had not come to visit Nicholas II, the Russian authorities did not accept such an irreconcilable position on the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia and did not announce mobilization, and even if G. Princip failed, like his accomplices, the war is all would have started anyway. Another reason would have been found. Let not in 1914, but later. Therefore, the question of whether the First World War could have been completely prevented can be answered briefly only in the negative. It was an inevitable necessity.

For more than 20 years of liberal lies to the people, they have persistently and persistently slipped and slipped a completely false idea that civil war is some kind of evil, into which the Bolsheviks have plunged the entire country. And if not for a handful of these villains, the country would live in peace and prosperity.

In reality, such a statement is false a priori and leads away from the class essence of the question itself.
After all, what is civil war? Civil war is nothing more than a concentrated expression of the class struggle. In other words, it is a struggle for power between the exploited class, that is, the proletarians, with the exploiting class, that is, those who were in power until recently, lost it and would like to return it.

Vladimir Ilyich Lenin wrote: "Whoever recognizes the struggle of classes cannot but recognize civil wars, which in any class society represent a natural, under certain circumstances inevitable continuation, development and intensification of the class struggle." (MILITARY PROGRAM OF THE PROLETARY REVOLUTION).

Could this sharp struggle not have happened? No, it could not, because the proletarians - workers, peasants and soldiers - tried to retain and defend the power they won in October 1917. And a pitiful handful of rich people, not having powerful support within the country, naturally tried to rely on foreign invaders and their bayonets, who did not hesitate to rush to plunder Russian riches. Fortunately, the White Guards were not without pleasure selling their own country to them wholesale and retail, not much ashamed of their actions and not noticeably grieving about the prosperity of Mother Russia.
So, let's fix that the civil war was a war or a struggle for power, between a handful of rich people, i.e. the minority, and the working majority, or the proletarians.

Does this mean that “brother went against brother,” or, in other words, that the rift of discord passed, so to speak, right through the families?

Let's just say that this phrase cannot be taken literally. Of course, individual cases when one brother was in the camp of the Whites, and the other in the camp of the Reds, took place. However, such a situation could arise only due to delusion and misunderstanding by individual proletarians of their class interests due to political illiteracy.

It is significant how Demyan Bedny wrote about this at that time, addressing the lost proletarians who stood up to defend the interests of their exploiters, the tsarist guardsmen and fat-bellied bourgeoisie:

But I feel sorry for the real sufferers - the poor,
It is a pity for those who, trembling in difficult moments,
I'm ready to put on the old fetters myself,
He asks for himself and prisons and fetters,
He substitutes his shoulders for the former "owners" ...

I will note that before the Great October Revolution the so-called "brothers" who stood on the other side of the barricades did not hesitate to rob the common people as sticky, and gnaw them to the bone, not at all thinking about some kind of "mythical brotherhood".

Therefore, in civil the oppressed stood up against the oppressor, and not "brother" against "brother", only this way and not otherwise, and it was impossible to avoid this, except perhaps by tilting the neck again under the yoke and whip of the exploiter.

Thus, those who scream today that civil war is evil are far from being concerned with the desire for peace and non-shedding of blood, but with the abandonment of the struggle in general, for power in favor of the bourgeoisie and landowners, who were removed from it by the will of the people in October 1917. of the year. And their position, by definition, is deeply anti-popular.

Lenin wrote in his "Reply to P. Kievsky (Yu. Pyatakov)": "The goal of the civil war is to conquer banks, factories, factories and other things (in favor of the proletarians), to destroy any possibility of resistance to the bourgeoisie, and to destroy its troops."

It is clear that such goals could not please those who, until recently, fattened themselves at the expense of the oppressed majority. It was this clash of interests that caused a fierce struggle - a civil war, the refusal of which would be tantamount to surrender to the bourgeoisie and those fragments of tsarism, which, unfortunately, still survived.