Bullshit war. War is bullshit

As for Putin's speech. The reaction of the American media to Putin's speech is practically zero and is equivalent to a "shrug of the shoulders." Putin, in some way, was promoted in rank and began to be called a “dictator.” But not a "usurper". So there is room to grow. But the wait probably won't be long. In the process, Russians can thus form a rough idea of what the North Korean dictatorship is and how brutal it is.

At the same time, I don’t understand the passions about Putin’s speech. No enthusiasm for the unkillable Russian weapons, nor, on the contrary, cries: “Everything is lost, we are all going to die!”...

The nuance is that, unlike the situation of the First and even the Second World Wars, which caused colossal destruction, the weakening of the warring parties was not enough for any third party that remained aloof from the war, such as Brazil or India, to come to the fore. Because such a side simply did not exist. More precisely, to a certain extent, the role of the third party in both wars was played by the United States, which was affected by these wars purely symbolically in comparison with the main participants in the battles of nations.

Today the situation seems to be significantly different. Firstly, today the oceanic “ditches” that saved the United States and, for centuries, Britain have ceased to fully fulfill their functions and, to some extent, on the contrary, have become a weakness. The main thing is that the multipolar world, it seems to me, does not work exactly as politicians present to the public.

The new stabilizing factor is that a third party has emerged that can win the battle without participating in it. Moreover, this side is not alone.

As a result, there are three options to choose from.

First: one of the sides wins completely, wins in the absolute sense, so that the other side does not even have time to tweet. Then victory is hers.

The second option, the notorious: “The whole world is in ruins.”

The third option is that the opposing sides weaken each other so much that the third party, sitting on a hill and watching the tiger fight, actually wins.

The first option is quite unlikely today, since it is unlikely that one of the warring parties will be able to achieve such an absolute military advantage. But it may become relevant if Russia continues to pray to God instead of work.

The second option... There is nothing to discuss here, because there will be no winners.

Third - well, if there are idiots, then welcome...

Since everyone understands everything, the dance will be complex and multivariate with such impressive steps that the world champion in single skating will be jealous. If he has time.

The bad thing is this: As for Russia, I have an enduring feeling that either the government continues the methodical and well-planned destruction of this “Carthage,” or the Russian government is infinitely naive and has chosen a catastrophically stupid and stupidly losing option: an oligarchic-religious regime and the transformation of the people into a herd of stupid sheep. It’s all good, it’s possible, but for some reason it seems to me that ISIS from Russia will turn out to be really bad. This means that, even if not today, but within a very limited time frame, the first option becomes the most likely. And it is not Russia that will win in this case.

I hope that you will still be able to get out.

PS. The US missile defense system, once deployed, will surround Russia with a ring of more than 400 missiles. Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin spoke about this on the Rossiya 24 TV channel, Vesti reports.

P.P.S. Today, the Strategic Missile Forces have 331 carriers, the Navy - 160, and the Air Force - 838.

Gasoline prices have risen sharply - and our caring government has decided to reduce taxes. An incredible, at first glance, action. Unprecedented. It was then, after the great war, “there was a time when prices were reduced,” but now!

What happened?

Why have gasoline prices increased?

And they grew up. We open Rosstat and see their jump in May to 5,7% (May 28 to the end of April, or 7.3% for this year). Against the background of inflation in 0,2-0,4% per month in the first 4 months of this year, you see, this is a lot. No, it was not in vain that numerous initiative groups in the regions became worried and began preparing protests against rising gasoline prices.

If we are dealing with a market economy, then prices usually rise due to a shortage of goods. Was there such a thing? Yes. In April, gasoline production fell by 10,6% (by March). Obviously, the May price jump was caused by the April production cut.

Go ahead. Why did gasoline production decrease? In April, oil production fell - but not so significantly - by only 3.2%. This could explain perhaps half the decline in gasoline production. Obviously, the companies exported oil, which is logical, given that in April-May oil prices rose by almost $10 per barrel.

Today I think it is possible to outline the system of facts and the changed state of affairs and positions of forces around Novorossiya. It can definitely be said that Russia has finally begun to play its game on the Novorossiya field. See for yourself.

Known facts collected in the system

The key fact is the sudden maneuvers of the troops of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation (CMD), which began on June 21st. During the maneuvers, the 2nd Army (dislocation in Samara) and the 41st Army (dislocation in Novosibirsk) will practice combat training tasks at training grounds in the Samara, Chelyabinsk and Kemerovo regions. At the same time, the district's troops are put on full combat readiness.

Geographically, the troops of the Central Military District are located from the Volga region to Altai from west to east and from the Arctic Ocean to the southern borders of the Russian Federation (in the picture of the Central Federal District - in green).

The number of military personnel of the Central Military District is less than the Western Military District, which historically is key in the Russian defense system. However, it is precisely the huge territory where the Central Military District troops are stationed that determines the need to begin their movement on June 21st under any plausible pretext.

The reasons for this decision of Putin are definitely related to the situation in Ukraine and Novorossiya. Let me remind you that by June 17-20, the situation of the Novorossiya militia troops had become very serious, as evidenced by Strelkov’s appeal on June 17, and the movement of tank columns to Donetsk on June 19, and the junta’s reports about the “practical blockade of Slavyansk.”

Such a superiority in heavy equipment and people could cause “itching in the hands” of the Nazis and their frostbitten bosses and cause a quick cleansing of the stronghold cities of the DPR and LPR with the help of tanks and multiple launch rocket systems. With the ensuing unacceptable consequences for Novorossiya and Russia.

The next determining factor is the so-called. “Poroshenko’s peace plan”, which appeared on June 20th. The plan itself is replete with unacceptable points for Novorossiya, but its very appearance means the following:
- Poroshenko is ready to suspend the military operation in Novorossiya;
- Poroshenko is ready for negotiations with militia leaders in a certain format;
- the parties to the conflict can sit down at the negotiating table;
- the parties can actually get a break in hostilities;
There is an opinion that it was not Poroshenko’s concern for the lives of the people of Novorossiya that forced him to accept this plan, but an intra-elite Ukrainian squabble. But a fact is a fact. Poroshenko moved towards negotiations with the militias.

In this context of events, Russian military exercises, which began immediately after the publication of the “Poroshenko plan,” are a powerful signal towards Ukraine: “Cease fire and run to negotiations!”
The signal successfully “knocked on the liver” of the Kyiv addressee, the intensity of the use of troops by the junta decreased.
In particular, on June 22, Strelkov, in particular, reported: “During the night from June 21-22, relative calm remained in the area of the cities of Slavyansk, Lisichansk, Seversk, Kramatorsk, Druzhovka and Konstantinovka.”
Thus, the maneuvers of the troops of the Russian Federation in central Russia, in the Urals and in Siberia can affect the armed formations of the still neighboring state. War is bullshit, the main thing is maneuvers!

Even with the parties’ ultimatum preliminary demands, they sat down at the negotiating table on June 23 in Donetsk. On the side of the militia there was the entire leadership of the DPR and LPR; on the side of Kyiv, the most representative was the leader of the public movement “Ukrainian Choice” Viktor Medvedchuk. It is definitely clear that the leadership of Novorossiya is not shying away from negotiations and is interested in them, but Kyiv has not sent a single serious official. It is clear that the negotiation process will be difficult and lengthy and may be disrupted. But I’m definitely glad that people started talking instead of “Grads”.

On the same day, June 23, Foreign Minister Lavrov in Yerevan says literally the following: “Only in this way [in the process of direct negotiations] will it be possible to ensure the state structure of Ukraine, which will guarantee equal rights and freedoms of citizens in all regions of the country. Russia in the situation in Ukraine is not guided by geopolitical ambitions; the priority is saving people’s lives.”

And finally, on June 24, Putin flew to Vienna to meet with the leadership of Austria and the OSCE (for negotiations on South Stream). Right before this, Putin’s press secretary Peskov said: “In connection with the start of trilateral negotiations on this issue, the head of state submitted to the Federation Council a proposal to repeal the Federation Council resolution of March 1, 2014 No. 48-FZ on the use of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine.” . Yes, this is a nice move to ensure more successful negotiations in Vienna.

Russia's actions and the events of June 21-24 in Novorossiya clearly indicate that Putin made a decision to military-diplomatically force the leadership of Ukraine to a ceasefire and negotiations with the leaders of Novorossiya.

Totalitarian analytics

I’ll tell you, gentlemen and comrades. For me, an imperial Stalinist, I should bring troops into this unfinished Ukrainian feudal misunderstanding, liberate from the fascists together with the local partisan army, organize a court in Slavyansk, outweigh all war criminals, shake up the oligarchs in favor of the Ukrainian state, organize popular elections and finally make Ukraine a decent, calm land, order in which will be ensured by Russian cultural and military organizations.

And I’m not the only one who dreams of such a scenario. Unfortunately, to implement such a scenario, the current Russian state does not have the necessary ideological content, a mobilized people, or an elite of the required scale. The Russian Federation, having sent troops into Ukraine with the aim of seizing it and “forcing peace”, in addition to the understandable “two hundred” and “three hundred”, will receive, albeit weak, but the mobilization of a collapsing Ukraine, terrorism and partisanship from the Banderni, demonization of Russia from the EU, an economic blockade , and therefore internal social problems that seriously threaten Russia itself with collapse. All this will lead to an increase in Russian and world instability, and therefore to the solution of the US strategic objectives of spreading this chaos in order to maintain its own world hegemony.

Some analysts reasonably believe that Russian intervention in Ukraine today would be the most desirable move for the United States and the Bandera junta, and therefore unacceptable for us. Moreover, Ukrainian experts are already talking about the fact of the Donetsk negotiations as a success of Russian policy: “This result of the negotiations actually turns the DPR and LPR into contracting parties - before there was no talk of anything like that,” commented Ukrainian military expert Igor Levchenko . - A similar result could have been expected when it became known that Viktor Medvedchuk was joining the negotiations. Many in Kyiv perceive him as a protege of Moscow and believe that the situation that arose after the meeting in Donetsk is much more beneficial for Russia than for Ukraine.”

On the other hand, looking at how an analogue of the Libyan scenario is being implemented near the borders of Russia is stupid, immoral and anti-state from all points of view. So I was waiting for how exactly Putin would walk between “Sicilla and Charybdis” (a hammer and an anvil, along the razor’s edge and beyond). The above facts reveal a linked system of military and diplomatic influence on Poroshenko, which led to the implementation of the scenario most beneficial to Russia today:

A ceasefire, albeit temporary, in the rebel regions of Ukraine;
- beginning of the negotiation process;
- inducing the Ukrainian leadership to negotiate with public leaders of the DPR and LPR;
- increasing the potential for the implementation of the Transnistrian scenario in Novorossiya;
- presentation of Russia as a peacemaker;

Being an opponent of both the course and personally of Putin and his entourage, and expecting a dirty trick and therefore remaining silent, I must admit that the actual shift in the process in Novorossiya towards a peaceful settlement is objectively a merit of the work of the Russian authorities. Yes, the shift may be short-term, weak and subtle, but absolutely real. A shift that can be strengthened, strengthened and developed. Or which can be used to strengthen the military component of Novorossiya. I don’t want the Russian passionaries of Novorossiya to be stupidly knocked out by long-range artillery. They are needed, there will be more work...

Russia began to play on the chessboard of Novorossiya, which is today a key region for the existence of the Russian people. No one chickened out, no one leaked it, just like Libya was leaked, but Syria was not leaked.
No need to whine. Remember, brother, if you didn’t drain, it means your comrades are not loyal, it means the battle continues!

The first move took place. The corridor of opportunities for Russia and Novorossiya has expanded. The game continues, which means there is a chance to win.

The Central Bank of Russia has finally decided to reduce the refinancing rate. Why is Russia raising the rate when all developed countries are lowering it?

Finally, the holiday has arrived on our street! Hooray! Hooray! Hooray! There was a message on news channels that the Central Bank of Russia has finally “come to its senses” and intends to begin reducing the refinancing rate (the interest rate at which other Russian banks take out loans from the Central Bank). Let us recall that we have repeatedly written about the detrimental impact of exorbitant loan interest rates on the Russian economy. It has been repeatedly said that interest on loans is the main mechanism for “pumping up” inflation (of course, not the only one). They cited Japan as an example, where, with lending rates close to zero, there has been no inflation at all over the past decades. Diflation (the excess of the commodity supply over the money supply), in which prices for all production products fall, happens there, but they may have already forgotten how to pronounce the word “inflation”. The vast majority of foreign countries, in times of crisis and to combat inflation, also took unprecedented measures to reduce loan interest to 0.1 or 2% maximum. Our Central Bank, regularly and repeatedly, being in the same economic conditions, INCREASED its rate, bringing it to 13% per annum. That is, the end consumer (enterprise or citizen) could receive a loan at an interest rate reaching, for example, on a mortgage, up to 30% per annum. Now add 18% VAT here, add other taxes and fees, and keep in mind that the workers of the enterprise still need to eat something. And think about whether, in such conditions, in principle, any innovative, knowledge-intensive projects with a “long” capital turnover can be developed? Or is this whole system initially designed for the scheme “bought on the left, sold on the right, but a little more expensive”? For those who think that this is all pure theory that has no direct relation to him personally, I advise you to think that approximately 6 rubles out of 12, which you will give this evening for a loaf of bread, will go into the pockets of bankers - people who do not have directly related to neither the cultivation of wheat nor the baking of bread. Such actions of the Central Bank could be considered sabotage if the Central Bank were directly related to state power. But since, as we have repeatedly shown, the Central Bank is a private-corporate office, it is incorrect to call them saboteurs. They are simply representatives of the colonial administration, honestly performing the function for which they exist - financial control over Russia by the global financial oligarchy. It is impossible to explain the policy of the Central Bank (as well as the very paradoxical independence of the main financial instrument from the Russian authorities) in any other way. So what does the current message about reducing the refinancing rate mean? Has the Central Bank been taken under the control of statists? Or have the true owners of the Russian financial system become concerned with the interests of Russia? Or (ugh three times over the left shoulder, never mind) did the bankers have an awakened conscience? Well, let's read the information messages to understand in more detail.

Eeeee... Excuse me, excuse me... AND YOU CALL THIS A REDUCTION??? What about the rate of 0–0.15% per annum in the USA? What about 2% in Europe? What about 1% in Israel? What about 1% in England? And what about, finally, even Azerbaijan with 5% per annum???

This turns out to be important! We, stupid people, believe that it is important to improve the economy and create conditions under which manufacturers will produce cheap and high-quality products. But no. It is we who are mistaken in our dullness. It turns out that the important thing is not to improve the economy, what is important is the “trend”. I remember the words of my army sergeant major - “Bullshit war! The main thing is maneuvers!”. I wonder how much the price of a loaf of bread will drop after the Central Bank cuts the rate by 0.5% per annum? Actually, all jokes aside, I'm willing to bet that it will go up, as usual, in a couple of months. For people who have fallen into mortgage bondage, of course, the rate will be reduced from 30% to 29.5% will cause a surge of unbridled optimism. Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach, however, says that “Reducing the refinancing rate by 0.5% of a point will not have an effect on the economy. However, the downward trend itself may already be positive.” I really want to say: keep the “positive character” and “positive trends” for yourself, and give us some bread a little cheaper. And pensioners see milk for 40 rubles only on supermarket shelves. So why was all this fuss going on? Recalling the need to increase rates, which were justified by old, repeatedly tested fools in society, such as that interest rates are rising because inflation is high, we would like to draw the reader’s attention to the demonstrative nature of the action to “supposedly” reduce rates. Comments on this action are given by the Deputy Head of the Central Bank, Alexey Ulyukaev. There will not be a one-time demonstrative action to reduce the refinancing rate, but “the beginning of some movement towards lowering rates.” At the same time, Ulyukaev noted that “we cannot run faster than a steam locomotive.” Let us also recall the streams of criticism of the Central Bank for the prohibitive loan interest rates, which have recently been heard not only from ordinary people and production workers, but have even begun to be voiced by senior government officials, for example Yuri Luzhkov, who stated that “the Central Bank is pushing the economy to death.” Against this background, it can be assumed that the sharp increase in lending interest rates of the Central Bank, which can't help but lead to the collapse of the economy and galloping inflation like the 90s, the Central Bank cannot carry out a sharp, spontaneous response, as this will cause a very strong response in society and among part of the “elite”. “Test balloons” in the form of statements by Kudrin, Ignatiev and all their cronies, supported by the recommendations of various Western “experts” in finance, for example the Goldman Sachs group, on the need to further increase the loan interest rate “to reduce inflation and improve the economy”, like provocative injections , gave a negative reaction. Society is not ready to just swallow a hook with bad bait - a boring fable for idiots that in order to help the manufacturer, you need to rip off more money from him in the form of bank interest. Therefore, it is necessary to somehow motivate the planned destruction of the remnants of the economy through a sharp increase in the interest rate (refinancing). How? What if we “throw the dogs a bone” in the form of (allegedly) lowering interest rates on loans? It goes without saying that lowering rates by 0.5% will not and cannot have any real effect. And this is clear to everyone. But nevertheless, a demonstrative gesture was made. It is likely that several more steps will be taken to “supposedly reduce” rates. Given the ridiculousness of these reductions, given the sharp rise in energy prices and many other factors systemic crisis it can be confidently predicted that the state of the economy and financial sector will steadily deteriorate. Why should he improve? What has changed for the better? Who else could explain why the Central Bank’s inflation expectations suddenly “improved” against the backdrop of the deepening hole of the global crisis, deplorable economic indicators and unanimously expert opinion that the “bottom of the crisis” has not yet been reached? Maybe Ignatiev had a good dream? Or has he washed his hands, and the finger from which he sucks these “expectations” has become tastier? However, the inevitable further deterioration of the economic situation in the context of the current policy will give Ignatievokudrin and Co. a reason to say that the reduction in refinancing rates, which they “tried with all their might,” did not give (as they repeatedly warned) any positive effect, and now they will “simply be forced”, due to inflation (of course), to increase the loan interest rate to 20... 25... - further according to their imagination. And their imagination is wild - let me remind you that from October 1993 (after Yeltsin’s “glorious victory” over the parliament) to April 1994, for example, the refinancing rate was 210% (and never fell below 10% at all). There were fun days... Well, for dessert, read the quote and appreciate the degree of humor, and also applaud the eloquence and persuasiveness of the prime minister, who managed to do it! (God bless!) ask the money king of Russia Ignatiev so that he lowers the Central Bank rate by 0.5%.

03.03.2018/sl_lopatnikov

I don’t understand the passions about Putin’s speech. No enthusiasm for the unkillable Russian weapons, nor, on the contrary, cries: “Everything is lost, we are all going to die!”...

In an article in Izvestia back in the mid-90s, I wrote that by 2025 there would be a serious danger of world war, as the United States, Russia and China would finish rearmament with a new generation of weapons. So, in reality, everything goes on as usual, in accordance with historical logic. So, right on schedule, the world is entering an impressive period of political tango.

The nuance is that, unlike the situation of the First and even the Second World Wars, which caused colossal destruction, the weakening of the warring parties was not enough for any third party that remained aloof from the war, such as Brazil or India, to come to the fore. Because such a side simply did not exist. More precisely, to a certain extent, the role of the third party in both wars was played by the United States, which was affected by these wars purely symbolically in comparison with the main participants in the battles of nations.

Today the situation seems to be significantly different. Firstly, today the oceanic “ditches” that saved the United States and, for centuries, Britain have ceased to fully fulfill their functions and, to some extent, on the contrary, have become a weakness. And, most importantly, the multipolar world, it seems to me, does not work exactly as politicians present to the public.

The new stabilizing factor is that a third party has emerged that can win the battle without participating in it. Moreover, this side is not alone.

As a result, there are three options to choose from.

First: one of the sides wins completely, wins in the absolute sense, so that the other side does not even have time to tweet. Then victory is hers.

The second option, the notorious: “The whole world is in ruins.”

The third option is that the opposing sides weaken each other so much that the third party, sitting on a hill and watching the tiger fight, actually wins.

The first option is quite unlikely today, since it is unlikely that one of the warring parties will be able to achieve such an absolute military advantage.

The second option... There is nothing to discuss here, because there will be no winners.

Third - well, if there are idiots, then welcome...

Since everyone understands everything, the dance will be complex and multivariate.

The bad thing is this: As for Russia, I have an enduring feeling that either the methodical and well-planned destruction of “Carthage” continues, or the Russian government has chosen a catastrophically stupid and stupidly losing option: an oligarchic-religious regime and the transformation of the people into a herd of stupid sheep. But ISIS from Russia sucks. This means that, even if not today, but within a very limited time frame, the first option becomes the most likely. And it is not Russia that will win under him.

P.P.S. Today, the Strategic Missile Forces have 331 carriers, the Navy - 160, and the Air Force - 838.