14.7. Association garlands method If the idea is not absurd from the very beginning, then it does not have any hope. Albert Einstein Method of the Association Girls and Metaphors is the development of the method of focal objects and includes procedures reflected in Fig. 14.8. First given

Table of contents 1. From the history of the method. From the history method of method history of method 2. Association method. Method Association Method Association 3. Example. Example 4. The essence of the method. Step 1. The essence of the method. Step 1Sut method. Step 1 5. Step 2. Selection of random objects. Step 2SHA 2 6. Step 3. Drawing up combinations. Step 3 Shag 3 7. Step 4. List of signs of random objects. Step 4Shag 4 8. Step 5. Generating ideas. Step 5 Shag 5 9. Step 6. Generation of the Garlands of Associations. Step 6 Shell Requirements for Chains of Associations. Requirements for chains of associations pays to chains of associations 11. An example of creating garlands. An example of creating garlands of creation of garlands 12. Step 7. Generating new ideas. Step 7 Shag step 8, 9. Choosing alternatives. Selection of rational. Step 8, 9shag 8, Step 10. Selection of the optimal option. Step 10Shag 10 Method for finding solutions of inventive tasks

His author is Henrich Yazepovich Bush. For many years he worked in Riga, developing methods and techniques for the conscious logical and intuitive and practical search for the solutions of inventive tasks. The Method of Hillands of Accidents and Associations (GSIA) is the development of the method of focal objects. From the history of the method of developing the method of Bush set itself a goal: to offer a key to solve problems in the deficit of information from Heinrich Yazepovich Bush

This method allows you to find a large number of prompts for the researcher through. The method of focal objects is characterized by the fact that it gives a large number of combinations of the focal object of CO. This method allows you to find a large number of prompts for the researcher through associations. The method of focal objects is characterized in that it gives a large number of combinations of a focal object with random. The expansion of combinations of concepts is still achieving the use of an object. The expansion of the concepts of concepts is still achieving the use of the synonyms of the object. Method Associations PDA Laptop Touch Computer Example: Garlands of Synonyms PC

The essence of the method on the example shown by the author: the definition of the object. Determination of the synonyms of the object. Garland Synonyms: Chair - Chair - Stool - Puff - Bench. The object was elected chair to offer new modifications to furniture makers. We solve the task of steps. Step 1 Step 1

The compilation of combinations of 1st steps are combined by each object in question with each accident (we have reduced). For example: Step 3 Step 3 Chair with an electric bottle, chair with an electric barbell, a grid chair, a grid chair, a chair with a pocket, a chair with a pocket, a chair for the beach, a chair for the beach, an electric chair, an electric chair, a stool for flowers, etc. Stool for flowers, etc.

The name of the signs of random objects electric light bulb, light and heat-emitting, electric, color-shaped, with a base, with electrocontacts, matte, color. Metal grille, plastic, woven, welded, wrought, flexible, rigid, large, small, with the same or unequal \\ cells from different elements. Pocket front, side, rear, outdoor, internal, invoice, false, with lightning, for storing documents, nasal scarves, money, written accessories, mirrors, pocket lamp, radio reception. Metal ring, wooden, plastic, twisted, solid, inflatable, enameled, with galvanic coating, with ornament, with clock, with radio, for sports exercises, Saturn Ring, for birds. Single-color flower, multicolor, fragrant, cup-shaped, spotted, automatically rotating to the sun, umbrella, self-disgraced, field, mountain, autumn, water, garden, spiked, symmetrical, medicinal, hair. Sea, river, sunny, sandy, pebble, smooth, buggy, narrow, wide, long. We make a list of signs of random objects Step 4

Generating ideas by alternately attaching to the object and its synonyms of features from the table. If you only take signs of an electric bulb, you can get: glass chair, heat-insulating chair, color-shaped pouf, etc. Generation of ideas step 5 step 5

Requirements for chains of associations It is necessary that the chain of born associations develops taking into account the alternation of the object and its characteristics and took into account not only technical, but also ergonomic, psychological, aesthetic, etc. Functions of the object. Associations are the relationships of objects and phenomena of activities reflected in human consciousness.

An example of creating garlands arguing. Glass electric bottle. What does the word "glass" remind? Maybe fiber. What does it remind? Someone weaving, knitting. Someone is associated with a grandmother attending rheumatism in the resort in the south, etc. The chain can be huge: etc. If you take other objects and signs (and about 100 of them) and consider the garlands of 40 elements, then there will be 4,000 items! We argue. Glass electric bottle. What does the word "glass" remind? Maybe fiber. What does it remind? Someone weaving, knitting. Someone is associated with a grandmother attending rheumatism in the resort in the south, etc. The chain can be huge: Glass - Fiber - Knitting - Grandma - Rheumatism - Resort - South, etc. If you take other objects and signs (and about 100 of them) and consider the garlands of 40 elements, then there will be 4,000 items!

Elements of the objects of the associations are alternately attached to the elements of the object of synonyms of the object alternately. Glass chair, fiberglass armchair, knitted pouf, a stool for a grandmother, a chair for the treatment of radiculitis, the heat chair (or creating heat), etc. Combinations devoid of rational content can be obtained. Generating new ideas step 7 step 7

The decision is made: Is the garland of associations enough for the selection of useful ideas? Selection of alternatives here are several stages: - discarding clearly irrational options; - selection of the most original options for dubious utility, which attract surprise; - Determining acceptable options. There are several stages: - discarding clearly irrational options; - selection of the most original options for dubious utility, which attract surprise; - Determining acceptable options. Evaluation and selection of rational options Step 8 Step 8 Step 9 Step 9

In the method of associations, the main sources for generating ideas are randomly selected concepts and arising associations and metaphors.

For the emergence of associations and generation of ideas, it is advisable to use various metaphors: binary metaphors-analogues; Metaphors of cata cuts containing contradictions; Metaphors-riddles. The technology of free associations is based on the principles such as free associations, anti-conforms, a delayed critical analysis.

Association garlands method. The method of association garlands and metaphors is the development of the method of focal objects. Initially, the definition of the synonyms of the object is given, as a result of which the garland of synonyms is formed. Combining all elements of the garland of synonyms with each elements of the garland casual nouns.

Methods using cards

Methods based on the use of cards make it possible to achieve anonymity of group work participants, so they are often used when there are conflicts in a group that puts forward ideas. Conflicts are not allowed to manifest themselves creative, creative decisions. In addition, verbal descriptions discipline the participants, presenting the requirements for the conciseness of the statement of thoughts, and allow you to visualize the process of generating ideas, thereby connecting additional perception channels and creating additional associations.

Taking UR in conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty

The differences between certainty, risk and uncertainty reflect the differences in the degree of knowledge of the decision maker. If you present the condition of his knowledge as a spectrum line, then at one end it will be defined (full knowledge), and on the other - uncertainty (complete lack of knowledge). Risk (partial knowledge) will lie between them. The position on the spectrum of the spectrum will reflect the existing degree of certainty (or neoprequency).

Concept of certainty. The certainty is understood as such co-standing knowledge, when a decision maker knows a specific outcome in advance for each alternative. In other words, the decision maker has a comprehensive knowledge of the state of the environment and the results of each possible solution.

Risk concept. The risk is defined as a state of knowledge when one or more outcomes are due to each alternative and when the probability of the implementation of each exodus is reliably known to the decision maker. Under the conditions of risk, the decision maker has a certain objective knowledge of the action environment and is able to objectively predict the venative essence of phenomena and the outcome or returns for each possible country.

Concept of uncertainty. Uncertainty is such a state of knowledge, when one or more alternatives have a number of possible outcomes, whose carriers are either unknown or does not make sense. Therefore, in contrast to risk, uncertainty will be subjective phenomenon. Uncertainty is often due to the rapid changes in the structural variables and market phenomena, which determine the economic and social environment of the firm.

Methods for choosing alternatives in conditions of certainty

In terms of certainty, the decision maker knows everything about the possible states of the essence of phenomena affecting the solution, and knows, the solution will be accepted. The decision makes a decision simply selects the strategy, the direction of actions or the project that will give the maximum from the cottage.

In general, the development of solutions in the conditions of definiteness of the direction to the search for the maximum return or in the form of maximizing the benefits (income, profit or utility), or minimizing costs. Such a search is called optimization analysis. Three optimization methods are used by the decision making: limit analysis, linear programming and increase analysis of profits.

Extreme analysis. Under certainty, income and costs will be known for any level of production and sales. The task is to find their optimal ratio, allowing to maximize the priest. The limit analysis allows you to do it. It uses the concepts of marginal costs and maximum income (Fig. 19). In this figure, the income curves, costs and profits typical for microeconomic theory are presented.

Margin income ( Mr.) Defined as an additional income (measurement of general income) received from the sale of an additional unit of pro-Dukta. Graphically it is expressed by the inclination of the general income curve ( Tr). Pre-delivered costs ( MC.) Defined as additional costs (change in total costs) for the purchase or production of an additional unit of products. Graphically they are expressed by the inclination of the common curve ( Ts).

Increased analysis.Increased profit analysis operates with any and all changes in income, costs and profits that were a consequence of a certain decision. Thus, the concept of increased analysis is covered by changes in both the functions themselves and their values. The main rule of solutions is to accept any proposal that increases with the right, or reject any suggestion, which reduces it.

Linear programming.Linear programming models are derived from clarity and relative simplicity. Their use in many practically important tasks related to decision-making turned out to be highly efficient, in connection with which they received a fairly wide distribution wound. The most famous Linear Programming Tasks include:

 tasks about the distribution of limited resources (tasks of optimal planning);

 Objectives about the optimal basket of products (diet tasks, optimal mixing tasks);

 tasks of optimal cutting (materials, blanks);

 transport tasks;

 Appointment tasks;

 tasks of optimization of financial flows;

 Tasks for optimizing payment schedules.

Methods of choice Alternatives under risk

Development of solutions in risk. The conditions of risk and uncertainty are characterized by the so-called conditions for multivalued expectations of the future situation in external environment. In this case, the LPR should make the choice of alternatives (AI), without having an accurate idea of \u200b\u200bthe factors of the external environment and their impact on the result. Under these conditions, the outcome, the result of each alternati is a function of the conditions - factors of the external environment (utility function), which is not always able to foresee the LPR. To provide and analyze the results of selected alternative strategies, use mat-rice solutions, also called the payment matrix. An example of a reference matrix is \u200b\u200bgiven in Table. one.

Table 1

Matrix solutions

A1, A2, A3- alternative strategies of action; S1, S2, S3 - state of eco-nomiki (stability, decline, growth, etc.); E11; E12; E13; E21; ... E33;... - Mass the solutions.

The numbers in the cells of the matrix are the results of implementation Eij.strategy AIin conditions SJ.. At the same time under risk conditions, the likelihood of occurrence SJ.known - wJ (SJ).

Methods of decision-making under risk conditions use the theory of choice, the name of the theory of utility. In accordance with this theory, the LPR chooses AIof the aggregate ( AI) (i \u003d 1 ... n), which maximizes the expected value of its utility function E, J.

Under risk conditions, when making a solution, the main point is the determination of the probability of the state of the medium SJ., i.e. the degree of risk.

After determining the probability wJ (SJ)output of the state of the environment SJdetermine the expected value of the implementation of each alternative, which is the weighted average cost E (AI):

E (AI) \u003dj Eij WJ (SJ)

where E (AI) - result of implementation AI ; wJ (SJ) – probability of offensive SJ.

The optimal strategy is the one that provides the greatest expected cost.

Training memory
> Association method

Association method is the first and the main method of memory developmentthat needs to be ledmed, as it is functional not only by itself, but also it is an integral part of most effective memorization methods. Without this method, it is impossible to imagine any memorization facilities, as well as, it is impossible to submit mathematics without numbers.

What is the association? Association - this is in a broad sense binding something with something. That is, the association is such a connection between two or more phenomena (objects, sensations, ideas, words, etc.) at which the actualization of one of them entails the appearance of another. So, for example, when you see a person going with skiing - you remember about winter (in other words, skis are associated with winter), and when you are asked what summer you are connected with, you most likely say that with the sun. And yet the association different people Very different from each other.

If you ask for several people to answer the first to the word "red" (in other words, to ask, with what word associated He has the word "red"), you can get such answers: "Mac", "Flag", "Tomato", "Black", etc. Such differences depend primarily from the individual experience of each person. Above the described associations are called free, they are already formed in your mind. And for mastering the Associations itself, you will need to learn how to create new associations (or connections) between any elements (words, numbers, symbols, etc.).

In fact, the creation of associations for memorization is a whole art. Famous American psychologist and philosopher William James (1842-1910) noticed: "The art of good memory is the art of the creation of numerous and diverse connections with any information that we want to remember ...". And all other researchers of the reserves of human memory unconditionally agree with him. In order for the associations to help you more effectively, you must first assign several rules for creating or building.

Rule number 1. Associations must be unusual, non-standard, incredible.

The rapidly, your associations will be boring, the less likely to be effective. On the contrary, the more non-standard and even, it may be absurdly the connection between the elements, the more stronger. Even better if your associations are ridiculous and ridiculous. No wonder in a series of replacing days we cannot remember the following Tuesday, but clearly remember the holidays, the birthdays of a decade ago, that is, all that at least somehow comes out of the category of everydayness.

And even among the holidays again and again appeal to the memories of those who distinguished themselves as an unusual incident. This is the property of our memory: it's best to capture all the brightest, unusual and exciting. So, when combining two elements, try to come up with the most incredible and strange combination, and you will make sure that it will affect the memorization process in the most positive way.

The creation of Associations is always individuallyTherefore, the reader should refer to the examples below only as an illustration, and not at all as the only possible and correct construction of associations. In order to master the method of associations, you must first of all learn to communicate any two words among themselves, and learn how to create connections are unusual, unexpected, non-standard, funny.

Let us try, for example, to tie in several ways the word "orange" and the word "soap". I really want to hope that you learned rule number 1 and immediately refuse the connections like this: "I bought an orange and soap." This is a link-enumeration, it is easily forgotten. It's much better if the connection will be like this: "began to clean the orange, and there (instead of juicy pulp) turned out to be a piece of soap."

You should not embarrass the oddity or the unreality of the communication you created - after all, as you know, it is such things to be remembered best. Here is another option to create a relationship between these words: "I draw an orange piece of soap." The connection may be like this: "I imagine that I bite the orange, and he turns into soap in the mouth." Now come up with another 2-3 original links (associations) between the words "orange" and "soap" themselves.

Let's try to link the words "tree" and "TV". Naturally, the link "Tree is shown on TV" does not suit us. It will rush as quickly as it originated. "TV hangs on a tree" - already better, but even better, it will still be more unusual to imagine that many small TVs hang on the tree (like leaves or fruits).

"The TV is mounted in the trunk of a tree" - also not bad. But in touch: "When the TV is turned on, a tree begins to grow out of it," in my opinion, the most successful of the listed. You will be clearer my opinion when you read the rest of the rules for building associations to memorize.

At first, the construction of such connections seems to be a matter of very and very strange, sometimes almost nonsense, but you do not have to forget that learn how to build such connections is simply necessary for mastering most of the methods of effective memorization. Try to come up with a few more substantially distinguished links between the words "TV" and "Tree". The more original connections between these words you can create, the better.

By the way, the creative abilities of a person are tested in a similar way. Than a person more original and distinguished essentially (and not "a tree got out from above ...", "the tree got out the side ... or from the bottom") links can create, the higher it creative potential. Therefore, the construction of new connections between words is doubly.

*** Exercise 1.

Practice yourself: Come up with associative connections for words:

Glass and shoes
Pencil and hat
Phone and watermelon

For each pair, come up with 3-4 links, not forgetting the rule number 1.

In the application you will find A few more couples for words for independent workout. It is even more difficult to invent such words between which the standard associations simply suggest. In these cases, we must be able to invent other associations, build new connections.

For the development of memory learn to avoid stereotypical, firmly rooted in personal experience Communications is especially important. It is important because the greatest number of errors is found precisely when playing words, between which the standard logical connection itself occurs.

For example, between the words "grass-flower", "Cat-mouse" alone suggests such connections: "The flower grows in the grass" and, accordingly, the "cat caught a mouse". Such connections are forgotten as all ordinary. This happens because people trust such a consolidated in the experience of communication and are not suitable for creating a creative association. Especially often this happens when memorizing not two, but a whole chain of elements.

Let's try to come up with something new for the words "pillow" and "blanket". It is more difficult than for the words "orange" and "soap", is not it? And yet, for good mastering methods of developing memory, you need to learn how to leave the usual ties, breaking familiar stereotypes. Here are some examples of original ties between these words.

"The pillow is sewn (stuck) to the center of the blanket."
"The pen fell out of the pillow and turned into a blanket."
"The pillow burst and turned into a blanket."
"The pillow was put on the head, and in the blanket wrapped."

*** Exercise 2.

Practge into the creation of unexpected links between the words:

Water and flower
Cat and milk
Envelope and handle

Come up with 3-4 original links between the words of each pair.

Of course, it would be more likely to connect the "cat" and "milk" so: "Cat drinks milk," but if you really want the Association method to bring you the most maximum benefit, then show more fantasy and come up with something more interesting. For example, at least such: "Cat swims in milk." A few more couples of words, the usual ties between which should be changed to new you will find in the app.

Rule number 2. Represent your association visually.
When the Association is already ready, it must be submitted, draw a visual picture, "revive" the plot, which was invented. Otherwise this rule is called By revitalizing. This simple method will help you consolidate the born connection. Try to present your story as a frame from a movie or a cartoon. First, for this, you may need to close for some time, but after a small workout you will learn to see pictures with open eyes.

Rule number 3. Exaggerate your associations.
The information will continue stronger if you present the objects of unnatural sizes, for example, huge, much bigger than they really are. So, when you need to remember the word "butter", imagine a huge pack of oil, value with a residential building; If you remember the word "light", then imagine a dazzling-bright light. But a huge elephant in his imagination can be chopped, it will become unusual and ridiculous, and therefore will be remembered better.

Rule number 4. Your associations should move.
Memorization will be even more efficient if, uniting items, you will force them to move, that is, to make any actions. Movement will help you brighter and submit a plot. Creating connections between objects force them to fall, burn, break, fly, fall, explode, jump, etc.

Try to avoid the verb "was" in your plots, use brighter verbs. And the more visually the action by which the transition from one word is carried out to another, the better the memory result. When you assimilate a long list, try to make each element becomes like acting person, That is, I performed the action itself, and not only the object of impact of the previous list item.

*** Exercise 3.

Now that you are familiar with all the rules of drawing up associations, it's time to practice yet. Well, if, when drawing up associations, you will remember about all 4 rules. Tie with the word association method:

Jacket and ear
Light bulb and fan
Ball and catlet
Salute and mushroom
Paint and stewardess
Binoculars and urine
Radio and antenna
Bicycle and chalk

If you have difficulty when creating connections between words, seek help to your acquaintances, and even better - to children, because they are a masters to fantasize. Listen to which links will come up with, and gradually you will learn how to quickly create unusual associations, the main thing is more fantasy and imagination.

By the way, I remind you that the ability to bind among themselves a variety of words is useful not only for memory development, but also for development creative abilities. Therefore, do not regret the time and share this lesson more attention.

The famous Italian Children's writer Gianni Rodari not only created on the basis of this very innocent occupation a whole methodology for the development of creative abilities in children, but also invented her a wonderful name - "Binin Fantasy". In his book "Grammar of fantasy. Introduction to the art of inventing stories" You will find not only a lot of examples of how from two seemingly incompatible words are born amazing history, but also specific methods for connecting these different words, that is, the methods of finding the very connection In the words, in search of which you can have already spent a lot of time.

However, it is a little known how to build a link between concepts or objects designated by words, a practical experience in this useful matter. You can enjoy it when you like, any minute free of mental activity: at home, in transport, in line, etc. During the day, we always have a moments that we spend wasted, it is better to use them for the benefit of the case. For example, why don't you try to come up with links between two arbitrary objects that you fell on the road from the bed to the bathroom?

The next day, try to tie them again, but this time in another way. And then, perhaps, it will be possible to come up with the third, and the fourth communication option. Or you can choose two other items. Anyway, you have no busy these seconds. Why not make charging for the mind, you will not challenge the fact that it is less necessary than charging for the body. You can carry out such a charge for the mind and at the moment when you are waiting that it is about to boil coffee, and when your partner is a little late for a meeting.

Well, now the time to check how good the ties between the words you created in the exercise number 3. Do not spy in the task (better close it with a piece of paper), try to reproduce the second word in a pair:

Light bulb -
Blazer -
Cutlet -
Bicycle -

Mushroom -
Binoculars -
Paint -
Antenna -

In the method of associations, the main sources for generating ideas are randomly selected concepts and arising associations and metaphors (Fig. 5.9).

Fig. 5.9. Structural scheme of the method of collective associations

For the emergence of associations and generation of ideas, it is advisable to use various metaphors: binary metaphors-analogues; Metaphors-cata cutters containing contradictions; Metaphors-riddles. The technology of free associations is based on the principles such as free associations, anti-conforms, a delayed critical analysis.

Association and Metaphor Girls Method It is the development of the method of focal objects. Initially, the definition of synonyms of the object will be given, as a result of which the garland of synonyms is formed. The combination of all elements of the garland of synonyms with each elements of the garlands of random nouns are carried out.

The following is a list of features in the form of adjectives for each element of random nouns for each element, which allows you to form a guilland of signs. To generate garlands of free associations, the initial moment is used by each element of the garland of signs. For the decisions found, you can again look for further ways to implement them.

34. The essence of the risk concept

An objective basis for building a risk management system in the enterprise is the concept of acceptable risk. The essence of this concept is as follows.

On the one hand, the amount of profit and the degree of financial sustainability of the enterprise primarily depend on the possibility of management to anticipate the risk, assess its consequences and effectively manage it, as it is known that the greatest profit, but also the greatest losses, as a rule, bring market operations with increased risk . On the other hand, management, avoiding risky decisions, becomes dangerous for the company, encourages it on stagnation, loss of competitiveness.

It follows that it is necessary for the implementation of the risk approach in the manager's activities in the work activity, which would take into account the various parties to management activities: risky and risk-free. This concept is called an acceptable risk concept.

1) the initial level of risk, i.e. The level of risk of ideas, ideas, suggestions without taking into account measures for its analysis and evaluation. This risk is unknown, unworthy and, therefore, a sufficiently high level due to the negotiation of the manager to emerging risky events;

2) The estimated level of risk, taking into account measures for analysis and risk assessment, as a result of which the real estimate of the risk level was obtained. This risk is analyzed and estimated and, therefore, lower level due to the readiness of the manager for the emergence of risky events;

3) the final (final, acceptable) risk level, taking into account the developed and conducted active and passive measures and measures to reduce the initial risk level.

The resulting estimate of the end level of risk can significantly change the opinion of the manager regarding the risks of the alleged decision. Given the measures taken, the end level of risk may be acceptable in order to "take a chance" to adopt the proposed solution.

From these reasoning, you can formulate the following main provisions of the concept of acceptable risk:

1) risk is, as a rule, non-standard and unchanged, and often a controlled parameter, to the level of which can and should be influenced;

2) High level Initial risk should not be the basis for refusing to make a decision, as it should be distinguished by the initial level of risk in the idea, in the plan, in a sentence, an estimated (analyzed) risk level, the analysis of which is made for the decision taken, and the final risk level after the development of neutralizing events;

3) Detailed risk analysis and development of activities that reduce it negative consequences Until an acceptable level, as a rule, allow to take risky decisions, in fact risking as far as acceptable or permissible for the economic entity.

Modern concept acceptable risk proceeds from the recognition of the fact that the risk of implementation received There is no entirely in full, as it is impossible to completely eliminate all risk factors that can lead to unwanted developments. At the same time, you can always find a solution that provides some compromise level of risk, which is called acceptable and which corresponds to a certain balance between the expected benefits and threat of losses.

The practical use of the concept of acceptable risk allows:

identify the most dangerous solutions related to the failure of the goals;

obtain estimates of possible damage (loss) for various solutions;

plan and implement risk reduction activities to an acceptable level;

evaluate risk management costs.

Thus, the concept of acceptable risk is to form a conscious risk attitude and orients the manager for informal solutions accompanied by a complex of measures to mitigate the impact and neutralization of possible consequences in the emergence of undesirable events in the company's activities.

34-36. The concept of making management decisions in business is usually required to choose between various strategies. Often this choice is made in conditions of such environments that the decision maker controls weakly or does not control at all. Use the main term "essence of change" to indicate such conditions. Solutions Thereby directly depend on the knowledge of the decision makers, the entity of the phenomenon, and how each of the strategies under consideration can be implemented at a certain state of this entity. The state of knowledge of the decision maker can be classified as definiteness, risk, uncertainty. Differences between certainty, risk and uncertainty reflect differences in the degree of knowledge of the decision maker. If you present the condition of his knowledge as a spectrum line, then at one end there will be a certainty (complete knowledge), and on the other - uncertainty (complete lack of knowledge). Risk (partial knowledge) will lie between them. The position on the line of the spectrum will reflect the existing degree of certainty (or uncertainty).

35. Concept of certainty. Non-definition is understood as such a state of knowledge when the decision makes a decision in advance is a specific outcome for each alternative. In other words, the decision maker has a comprehensive knowledge of the state of the environment and the results of each possible solution.

Taking decisions in conditions of certainty, proceed from existence in the future a specific situation in the external environment. The effect of one or another alternative to the solution can be determined in this case through the unambiguous level of achievement. How realistic is such a concept? At first glance, it seems far from practice and therefore having only academic interest. In fact, however, the opposite is true. There are many short-term situations where the decision maker has a comprehensive knowledge. Many business decisions require only the knowledge of current prices and demand values \u200b\u200bthat can be determined with a sufficient degree of accuracy in the near future. In terms of certainty, a majority of solutions are taken in the challenges on the theory of probabilities considered by economic and behavior science. Certainty takes place in most arithmetic and algebraic tasksAs well as in many models of linear and nonlinear programming. Such models are used to search for the distribution of resources that give the greatest return on a specific indicator (such as profit or cost) or the smallest value of some other criterion (such as costs) in the conditions of the specified limitations. In fact, however, only a little can remain certain in a fairly large, time interval. Exodes of long-term investments only with a rare exception can be predicted with sufficient accuracy, if we imagine the large number of dynamic interactions of unknown variables with which the LPR is found in the real economic situation. These variables include internal and international competition, changes in the political situation, scientific and technical achievements, as well as rapid consumer tastes. Thus, strategic decisions are made in conditions, very far from complete knowledge. Accordingly, they are accepted in conditions of either risk or uncertainty.

36. The concept of uncertainty. The concept of uncertainty. If there is no possibility to obtain data on the probability of the onset of one or another situation in the external environment, decisions are made in conditions of uncertainty. Uncertainty is such a state of knowledge, when one or more alternatives have a number of possible outcomes, the likelihood of which is unknown, or does not make sense. Therefore, in contrast to risk, uncertainty will be subjective phenomenon. Two observers considering a certain situation will never be equally formulated, its quantitative characteristics. This happens not only because they have different levels of knowledge, but also because they have different temperatures and approaches. Uncertainty is often due to the rapid changes in the structural variables and market phenomena, which determine the economic and social environment of the firm.